Hearthstone Arena Time Commitment Heuristics

Feb 20, 2017 | | Say something

I have an enormous preoccupation with data, just below the capacity that would make it a marketable skill, and just above the point where I actually do anything.

With the announcement of Hearthstone Arena leaderboards, I decided to determine how much time I would actually have to spend playing/streaming to place on the leaderboard.

Don’t you mind the fact that I’m not even infinite and won’t ever likely be on the leaderboard. That is not the point of the exercise.

The point of the exercise is to understand what scheduling commitment would be need to be made if I were not out-skilled by the vast majority of players.

It doesn’t matter if I suddenly git gud over night if I can’t possibly execute on that skill due to time constraints.

Here are the time-relevant factors to consider:

  1. How many runs do I have to do?
    • At least 30.
  2. How many games do I have to play?
    • Wins: 9.34 wins on Europe being the absolute highest appearance so far (nice one, Vic) and 5.91 wins on Asia (I don’t know how they broke any ties for last spot so this is the tie for second-to-last.)
    • Losses: A safe assumption is that you will always have to account for 3 losses. It’s worth noting that a 100% winrate is not always faster, because 7 + 3 = 10 < 12. You’ll obviously place higher with a higher winrate, but a higher winrate realistically is just insulation from unfortunate runs.
  3. How long does each game take?
    • 10 minutes on average.
    • Definitely going to track my match times to come up with my own figure.
  4. How long does each draft take?
    • Even if I did find any data, I’d assume this is incredibly variable for each player. I will assume 10 minutes here, just to count it as another “game.”
  5. If you take any breaks during your session, how long are those?
  6. How long does match-making take?
  7. Pre-run:
    • How long do you spend deciding on which server to play?
    • How long do you spend deciding which class you will play?
    • Do you have to do anything special to get ready? Rebooting your PC, getting something to drink, smoking a bowl, etc. that you personally constitute as part of your session time?
    • Do you have any post session rituals? If you have to turn off your electronics for an hour before you can go to bed, then in order to play Hearthstone after you get home from work but before you go to bed… gotta add that hour.

So for a 1-4 let’s get an estimate on that math.

30 Runs (10 minutes[7+3+1 “games”]) = 3300 minutes

55 hours.

Heck of a minimum…

For reference, rounding up:

  • 2 hours of play per day if you played every single day.
    • The other daily play is to do one run per day, as other than February this occasionally will give you a day off.
  • 5 hours of play per day for 11 days.
  • 15 hours of overtime if you treated the game like a full-time job for a week.

Assuming of course you’re already an infinite player.

It will definitely take longer if you’re making up for how shitty you are, like me.

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